Портнов Алексей Михайлович

The paper presents the analysis of stability of dynamic territorial socio-economic system, described by four key indicators: population, housing commissioning per capita, average cost of housing and gross regional product. Based on the combined data from Moscow and Moscow region for the period of 2014-2023, vector autoregressive model of the second order VAR(2) was constructed and its spectral analysis was carried out in order to determine the system's stability. It is established that the system is in unstable state, the spectral radius is p = 2.256, increase in internal disturbances in 2021-2022 and smoothing of the situation in 2023 were revealed. The most volatile and difficult-to-predict indicators that determine the "bottlenecks" of the system under study were identified. In the context of territorial planning, the results can be interpreted as signals for the use of adaptive management aimed at smoothing imbalances and increasing systemic sustainability in the implementation of the principles of land redistribution for building and other indicators of territorial development. The research is based on modern approaches to discrete dynamic modeling and its application in economics and territorial planning. The spectral analysis method, which uses estimation of the values of the transition matrix of the system, serves as a tool for diagnosing sustainability of interconnected subsystems development.