Published: 15 April 2026
The article is devoted to the development and testing of quantum-agent hybrid assessment method of marketing systems sustainability in agro-industrial complex of Arctic under conditions of increasing geopolitical fragmentation. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that classical probabilistic approaches based on linear regressions and Markov processes are not able to adequately reflect cognitive and institutional uncertainty caused by sanctions, disruption of logistics chains and changes in the status of Arctic territories, where risk factors do not act in isolation, but as mutually influencing confusing variables. The proposed method combines the apparatus of quantum probabilities (superposition of managerial states, quantum entanglement, amplitudes interference) and agent-oriented modeling, which makes it possible to formalize the states of each agent of marketing system (manufacturer, processor, logistics operator, retail network) in the form of superposition of three basic states - adaptation, collapse, and transformation. The computational experiment was conducted on real data for three Arctic zones: Murmansk Region (coastal fish processing clusters), Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (continental reindeer husbandry systems and greenhouses) and Arctic territories of Norway as a reference zone. The time horizon of simulation was 36 months with one week discreteness, 500 scenarios were modeled with different degrees of initial agents entanglement and the rate of geopolitical fragmentation rise. It was determined that at sharp fragmentation rise marketing systems with high agent connectedness (entanglement degree is greater than 0.7) lose stability by 30 to 40 percent faster compared to the systems with moderate entanglement, while decentralized structures with interference of local strategies retain functionality due to quantum-like tunneling of resources between clusters. The stability threshold is quantified - geopolitical fragmentation index equal to 0.62, below which the system is in the state of coherent search for solutions, and above this index it goes into stochastic dissipation mode. Algorithm of preventive reconfiguration on the basis of quantum margin of stability monitoring (Q-margin) was developed and verified, which allows for proactive management actions at Q-margin values in the range of 0.15-0.25. It has been proven that preventive intervention requires 40-55 percent lower operating costs compared to emergency reconfiguration after crossing the fragmentation threshold, and reduces stability losses by 9-12 percentage points. The practical significance of the work is in creation of a tool base for digital twins of Arctic agro-marketing systems with the function of early detection of precollapse states and realtime decision support. The results obtained can be used by regional authorities of agro-industrial complex, logistics operators and industry unions operating in Arctic zone.