Published: 15 April 20262 Views0 Downloads
Under conditions of increasing global financial instability and monetary policies divergence of central banks, the study of credit multiplication mechanisms is becoming particularly relevant. The article is devoted to comparative analysis of credit multiplier in groups of developed and developing economies for the period 2018-2024 with the forecast for 2025-2026. On the basis of the data from the International Monetary Fund, the Bank for International Settlements, and national central banks, the actual credit multiplier values for eight countries were calculated: the United States of America, Germany, Japan, Great Britain, Russia, China, Brazil, and India. It is established that the average multiplier value in the group of developed economies (5.5) is 1.8 times higher than that of developing countries (3.0). Four key determinants of this gap were identified: mandatory reserve rate (correlation coefficient r = -0.74), the level of economy monetization (r = +0.68), key interest rate of the central bank (r = -0.61) and institutional environment quality (r = +0.72). It is shown that during the pandemic of 2020-2021, the traditional monetary multiplier mechanism failed in developed economies due to accumulation of excess reserves by banks. A risk matrix was compiled for multiplier dynamics for 2025-2027. Critical threats related to geopolitical fragmentation of financial system and maintenance of high key interest rate were identified for Russia.